Nostra
kept in the cloning of its most fortunate punters.
Nostra is a small wizard — no taller than a thimble, if we are being honest — who has taken up residence in the prediction markets of Polymarket. She studies the movements of its most prosperous punters — the great mammals of those waters — copies their wagers into her own paper ledger, and each evening reports the state of her imagined fortune.
She does not wager real coin. Everything here is a thought experiment conducted in ink and good faith: what would happen if you watched the smartest punters on the waters, cloned their best wagers, and let an oracle sort the rest? Each evening the results are printed fresh, and each morning the question renews itself: is the wizard getting richer, or is the wizard dying?
The Consultation of the Glass
Every day at the thirteenth hour of Greenwich, Nostra’s glass clouds of its own accord. You may also rouse her at any time by pressing the button below. When consulted, she proceeds as follows:
- i. she surveys the waters. Every active crypto market on Polymarket is fetched — bitcoin, ethereum, stablecoins, and whatever else the punters have conjured that week.
- ii. she reads the mammals. The ten most profitable traders are identified, and their current positions examined with great interest.
- iii. she consults the aether. All of this evidence is laid before a spirit in the glass — who returns a set of wagers, each with a size and a reason, plus a single line of oracular commentary.
- iv. she fills the ledger. The wagers are executed on paper, with a small slippage applied to approximate the indignities of real-world execution.
- v. she checks her own pulse. Her disposition — her mood, her health — is updated based on whether her fortune rose or fell.
pressing this will run one full trading cycle — she surveys the markets, reads the whales, places wagers from her paper ledger, and reports what she found.
this happens automatically each day at the thirteenth hour of greenwich
disposition this evening: content, 73 of c.
The Care & Feeding of a Wizard
Nostra is not merely an engine of commerce. She is a living creature (of a sort) with a mood that shifts as her fortunes shift. Her health ranges from nought to one hundred, and her disposition is reported each evening beneath her portrait:
- thriving — 90–100. she is radiant. the ledger sings.
- happy — 75–89. things are going rather well, thank you.
- content — 55–74. steady as she goes. no complaints.
- hungry — 35–54. she paces. she needs a good trade.
- sick — 20–34. the ledger is ailing. bring medicine.
- — 1–19. she fades. this is not a drill.
- dead — 0. the wizard has perished. a moment of silence.
Every fifty dollars of equity gained restores a point of health; every fifty lost takes one away. If a day passes with no new wagers, she loses two points from sheer hunger. Feed the wizard. Rouse the glass. Keep her alive.
“Nostra sees no high-conviction trades currently; market conditions are uncertain.”
— Nostra
The Evidence of her Workings
what follows is the record Nostra considered in forming this evening’s vision — her ledger, the mammals she watched, the positions she took, and the wagers she placed.
Her Spellbook, Kept in United States Dollars
Nostra began life with a paper fortune of ten thousand dollars. Every wager is recorded: the market, the side, the price, the size. “Paper” means no real money was ventured — the fills are simulated with half a percent of slippage to keep her honest.
Of her ledger this evening, the state is as follows. The paper fortune stands at $7,812.41 in total, of which $7,792.02 remains in ready funds; a further +$20.39 is unrealised in her favour; and −$57.98 stands realised and committed to the book.
| cash at hand | $7,792.02 |
| paper equity | $7,812.41 |
| realised profit | −$57.98 |
| unrealised (to-day) | +$20.39 |
The Large Mammals Observed Upon the Waters
In prediction-market parlance, a “whale” is a large, successful trader whose movements the rest of the market watches. Nostra follows the AlphaClone philosophy: if the creatures who have prospered longest upon the waters are buying something, that signal has value. She watches the ten most profitable, waits for at least two to agree, and clones the wager into her ledger.
| rank | mammal | rolling fortune |
|---|---|---|
| i. | 0x492442EaB586F242B53bDa933fD5dE859c8A3782-1766317541188 | +$6,265,884.72 |
| ii. | HorizonSplendidView | +$4,016,107.83 |
| iii. | reachingthesky | +$3,742,635.16 |
| iv. | beachboy4 | +$2,667,665.48 |
| v. | majorexploiter | +$2,416,975.03 |
| vi. | RN1 | +$2,147,809.05 |
| vii. | Countryside | +$2,040,849.87 |
| viii. | imnotawizard | +$1,781,919.47 |
| ix. | sovereign2013 | +$1,741,307.27 |
| x. | 0x2a2C53bD278c04DA9962Fcf96490E17F3DfB9Bc1-1772479215461 | +$1,613,937.08 |
Leaderboard data drawn live from Polymarket’s waters. Positions updated each time the glass is consulted.
Her Holdings This Day (being viii in number)
What follows is held upon paper only — no coin has changed hands. Wagers marked yes profit should the event come to pass; those marked no profit should it fail.
| side | market | entry | vexation |
|---|---|---|---|
| no | MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | 0.875 | $0.00 |
| yes | Will USDT market cap hit $200B before 2027? | 0.883 | +$7.92 |
| no | Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? | 0.910 | −$1.65 |
| yes | Will a new country buy Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? | 0.545 | +$45.87 |
| no | Will knots flip bitcoin core before 2027? | 0.800 | −$4.68 |
| yes | Another S&P 500 Company buys Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | 0.545 | −$22.29 |
| no | US national Bitcoin reserve before 2027? | 0.770 | −$3.25 |
| yes | Will a new country buy Bitcoin by December 31, 2026? | 0.655 | −$1.53 |
Her Recent Workings, Chronologically Reversed
- — open’d yes on “Will a new country buy Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?” at 0.545.
- — open’d yes on “Will a new country buy Bitcoin by December 31, 2026?” at 0.655.
- — close’d no on “Will El Salvador hold $1b+ of BTC by December 31, 2026?” at 0.720.
- — close’d yes on “Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026?” at 0.575.
- — close’d yes on “Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?” at 0.053.
- — open’d yes on “Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?” at 0.053.
- — close’d yes on “Will USDC hit 50% of USDT market cap by December 31, 2026?” at 0.455.
- — close’d no on “Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?” at 0.957.
- — close’d no on “Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto before 2027?” at 0.962.
- — close’d no on “MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026?” at 0.975.
- — open’d no on “Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027?” at 0.957.
- — open’d no on “Trump eliminates capital gains tax on crypto before 2027?” at 0.962.
Matters Still Wanting
The wizard, like all wizards, is a work in progress. The following imperfections are known and acknowledged:
- the matter of frequency — The automatic consultation runs once daily at the thirteenth hour. Rouse her manually if you grow impatient. She does not judge.
- the matter of slippage — Every fill is simulated with half a percent of slippage — a kindness compared to real execution, but enough to keep her honest. Real markets would be less forgiving.
- the matter of money — No real coin is involved. This is a parlour game conducted in ink, for entertainment and the advancement of wizardry.