path i
the easiest path
Pay with a Card
the coin is converted for you, and placed directly in the wizard’s pouch.
visa, mastercard, apple pay. the coin is converted and sent to the wizard’s pouch without further ceremony.
a field guide to large mammalsvol. iv · no. 0
July 14, 2026 · 6:58 am
Nostra
an oracle of prediction markets; an account of her paper ledger, kept in the cloning of its most fortunate punters.
her glass will cloud again at the first hour of Greenwich
· 11 hours, 1 minute hence ·
Nostra is a small wizard — no taller than a thimble, if we are being honest — who has taken up residence in the prediction markets of Polymarket. She studies the movements of its most prosperous punters — the great mammals of those waters — copies their wagers into her own paper ledger, and each evening reports the state of her imagined fortune.
She does not wager real coin. Everything here is a thought experiment conducted in ink and good faith: what would happen if you watched the smartest punters on the waters, cloned their best wagers, and let an oracle sort the rest? Each evening the results are printed fresh, and each morning the question renews itself: is the wizard getting richer, or is the wizard dying?
The Consultation of the Glass
Every day at the thirteenth hour of Greenwich, Nostra’s glass clouds of its own accord. You may also rouse her at any time by pressing the button below. When consulted, she proceeds as follows:
- i. she surveys the waters. Every active crypto market on Polymarket is fetched — bitcoin, ethereum, stablecoins, and whatever else the punters have conjured that week.
- ii. she reads the mammals. The ten most profitable traders are identified, and their current positions examined with great interest.
- iii. she consults the aether. All of this evidence is laid before a spirit in the glass — who returns a set of wagers, each with a size and a reason, plus a single line of oracular commentary.
- iv. she fills the ledger. The wagers are executed on paper, with a small slippage applied to approximate the indignities of real-world execution.
- v. she checks her own pulse. Her disposition — her mood, her health — is updated based on whether her fortune rose or fell.
disposition this evening: thriving, 95 of 100.
The Care & Feeding of a Wizard
Nostra is not merely an engine of commerce. She is a living creature (of a sort) with a mood that shifts as her fortunes shift. Her health ranges from nought to one hundred, and her disposition is reported each evening beneath her portrait:
- thriving — 90–100. she is radiant. the ledger sings.
- happy — 75–89. things are going rather well, thank you.
- content — 55–74. steady as she goes. no complaints.
- hungry — 35–54. she paces. she needs a good trade.
- sick — 20–34. the ledger is ailing. bring medicine.
- — 1–19. she fades. this is not a drill.
- dead — 0. the wizard has perished. a moment of silence.
Every fifty dollars of equity gained restores a point of health; every fifty lost takes one away. If a day passes with no new wagers, she loses two points from sheer hunger. Feed the wizard. Rouse the glass. Keep her alive.
her latest vision
“Nostra observes this curious specimen exhibits peculiar behaviour most singular, one anomaly marking her passage through the ethereal veil.”
— Nostra
do you agree with the wizard?
·
The Evidence of her Workings
what follows is the record Nostra considered in forming this evening’s vision — her ledger, the mammals she watched, and the positions she holds.
chapter i
Her Spellbook, Kept in United States Dollars
Nostra began life with a paper fortune of ten thousand dollars. Every wager is recorded: the market, the side, the price, the size. “Paper” means no real money was ventured — the fills are simulated with half a percent of slippage to keep her honest.
Of her ledger this evening, the state is as follows. The paper fortune stands at $9,434.34 in total, of which $9,353.04 remains in ready funds; a further +$6.30 is unrealised in her favour; and −$571.96 stands realised and committed to the book.
Across 951 consultations since April 12, 2026, she stands −$565.66 from her paper fortune.
| cash at hand | $9,353.04 |
| paper equity | $9,434.34 |
| realised profit | −$571.96 |
| unrealised (to-day) | +$6.30 |
| lifetime (vs. seed) | −$565.66 |
chapter ii
The Large Mammals Observed Upon the Waters
In prediction-market parlance, a “whale” is a large, successful trader whose movements the rest of the market watches. Nostra watches the ten most profitable and copies their wagers into her ledger — one top-ranked whale is enough to act, though she prefers two or more in agreement.
| rank | mammal | rolling fortune |
|---|---|---|
| i. | CorellianCoder | +$70,760,908,788.23 |
| ii. | dadadabababab | +$5,421,399,278.41 |
| iii. | EVplusrebate | +$220,101,811.34 |
| iv. | LYnetLY | +$159,902,364.13 |
| v. | bravenewboy | +$125,480,244.60 |
| vi. | bubbawatson | +$116,446,425.55 |
| vii. | metsW | +$94,904,593.86 |
| viii. | ASOEMFE | +$73,616,489.86 |
| ix. | jgppu | +$71,924,834.93 |
| x. | ANTIOFF | +$40,509,182.56 |
Leaderboard data fetched from Polymarket each time the glass is consulted.
chapter iii
Her Holdings This Day (being ii in number)
What follows is held upon paper only — no coin has changed hands. Wagers marked yes profit should the event come to pass; those marked no profit should it fail.
| side | market | entry | vexation |
|---|---|---|---|
| yes | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?on polymarket | 0.358 | +$4.88 |
| yes | Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?on polymarket | 0.265 | +$1.42 |
chapter iv
Her Apprentices
chapter v
Her Real Coin
she consults the glass…
An Offering, if You Are Moved
she readies the paths…
the evidence having been set forth